草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)技術(shù)及其應(yīng)用研究
草原火災(zāi)案例分析、火行為分析和災(zāi)情模擬重現(xiàn)是實(shí)現(xiàn)草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理三個(gè)主題的重要方法。這些也是本書的核心內(nèi)容。本書的出版是對(duì)草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估技術(shù)研究階段性工作的總結(jié)和整理。本書通過對(duì)草原火災(zāi)案例分析實(shí)現(xiàn)草原火災(zāi)時(shí)空分布規(guī)律研究；利用室內(nèi)外點(diǎn)火實(shí)驗(yàn)和案例分析對(duì)草原火行為特征進(jìn)行研究；在草原火行為分析基礎(chǔ)上，借助元胞自動(dòng)機(jī)實(shí)現(xiàn)草原火災(zāi)動(dòng)態(tài)蔓延模擬；借助遙感和地理信息技術(shù)以及蒙特卡羅方法實(shí)現(xiàn)草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估，并提出草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估應(yīng)用方式。取得重要研究成果
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目錄
序
前言
第1章緒論1
1.1背景與意義4
1.1.1研究背景4
1.1.2研究目的和意義7
1.2研究前沿與進(jìn)展10
1.2.1草原火行為研究進(jìn)展及評(píng)述11
1.2.2草原火險(xiǎn)研究進(jìn)展及評(píng)述14
1.2.3草原火災(zāi)災(zāi)情評(píng)價(jià)研究進(jìn)展及評(píng)述19
1.2.4草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究進(jìn)展及評(píng)述20
1.2.5草原火災(zāi)模擬進(jìn)展及評(píng)述24
1.3草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的系統(tǒng)理論分析研究27
1.3.1草原火災(zāi)相關(guān)的概念分析28
1.3.2草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的理論基礎(chǔ)29
1.3.3草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)系統(tǒng)的復(fù)雜性分析30
1.4本書的內(nèi)容與框架32
1.4.1主要研究?jī)?nèi)容32
1.4.2本研究中存在的關(guān)鍵問題35
1.4.3技術(shù)路線36
第2章我國(guó)北方草原地表可燃物時(shí)空演變39
2.1我國(guó)北方草原基礎(chǔ)地理概況40
2.1.1地理位置與行政區(qū)劃40
2.1.2自然地理環(huán)境42
2.1.3社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境43
2.2基于植被指數(shù)的草原可燃物時(shí)空演變分析44
2.2.1常用的植被指數(shù)44
2.2.2基于植被指數(shù)的草原生物量計(jì)算46
2.2.3基于植被指數(shù)的草原可燃物量計(jì)算49
第3章我國(guó)北方草原火災(zāi)時(shí)空規(guī)律分析543.1研究區(qū)草原火災(zāi)歷史概況54
3.1.1研究區(qū)草原火災(zāi)防火概況54
3.1.2研究區(qū)防火減災(zāi)能力概況55
3.2我國(guó)北方草原火災(zāi)時(shí)空格局分析56
3.2.1起火原因調(diào)查分析58
3.2.2草原火災(zāi)的分布規(guī)律61
3.3我國(guó)北方重大草原火災(zāi)時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè)64
3.3.1基于非線性理論的草原火災(zāi)時(shí)間序列預(yù)測(cè)64
3.3.2灰色系統(tǒng)預(yù)測(cè)法65
3.3.3馬爾可夫預(yù)測(cè)67
3.3.4灰色馬爾可夫預(yù)測(cè)68
3.4我國(guó)北方草原火災(zāi)災(zāi)損規(guī)律的模糊判別分析69
3.4.1基于信息擴(kuò)散理論的草原火災(zāi)發(fā)生概率分析70
3.4.2基于信息矩陣的草原火災(zāi)次數(shù)與損失模糊關(guān)系分析73
第4章我國(guó)北方草原火行為特征分析78
4.1天氣條件對(duì)草原火災(zāi)的影響分析78
4.1.1水分條件對(duì)草原火災(zāi)的影響79
4.1.2溫度對(duì)草原火災(zāi)的影響81
4.1.3風(fēng)對(duì)草原火災(zāi)的影響84
4.1.4干旱對(duì)草原火災(zāi)的影響85
4.2可燃物特征對(duì)草原火災(zāi)的影響分析87
4.2.1可燃物含水率對(duì)起火影響分析87
4.2.2可燃物特征與火行為參數(shù)關(guān)系89
4.2.3可燃物的火強(qiáng)度91
4.3不同火環(huán)境下的火行為分析92
4.3.1天氣條件對(duì)草原火災(zāi)傳播速度影響分析93
4.3.2地形對(duì)草原火傳播速度影響分析93
4.3.3綜合因素影響下的草原火蔓延速度分析93
第5章基于火行為分析的草原火災(zāi)蔓延模擬99
5.1基于元胞自動(dòng)機(jī)的草原火災(zāi)蔓延模擬99
5.1.1格網(wǎng)定義101
5.1.2格網(wǎng)狀態(tài)101
5.1.3演化規(guī)則101
5.1.4風(fēng)向和風(fēng)速的影響103
5.1.5草原火災(zāi)擴(kuò)散概率104
5.1.6蔓延時(shí)間的確定104
5.1.7蔓延模擬流程105
5.2案例研究106
5.2.1研究區(qū)地理背景106
5.2.2草原火災(zāi)情境還原108
5.2.3草原火災(zāi)蔓延場(chǎng)景模擬可視化108
5.3草原火災(zāi)動(dòng)態(tài)蔓延結(jié)果驗(yàn)證109
第6章基于草地類型的草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)研究112
6.1草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的基本理論112
6.1.1草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)形成機(jī)理112
6.1.2草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)框架115
6.2研究區(qū)概況與數(shù)據(jù)來源115
6.2.1研究區(qū)概況115
6.2.2數(shù)據(jù)來源與處理116
6.3草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系117
6.3.1草原火災(zāi)危險(xiǎn)性分析117
6.3.2草原火災(zāi)暴露性分析122
6.3.3草原火災(zāi)脆弱性分析122
6.3.4草原火災(zāi)管理能力分析122
6.3.5草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系122
6.3.6草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指標(biāo)權(quán)重確定123
6.4我國(guó)北方草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合評(píng)價(jià)124
6.4.1我國(guó)北方草原火災(zāi)危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)125
6.4.2我國(guó)北方草原火災(zāi)暴露性評(píng)價(jià)125
6.4.3我國(guó)北方草原火災(zāi)脆弱性評(píng)價(jià)127
6.4.4我國(guó)北方草原火災(zāi)管理能力評(píng)價(jià)127
6.4.5我國(guó)北方草原火災(zāi)綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果128
6.5基于火行為模擬的草原火災(zāi)動(dòng)態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)131
6.5.1草原火災(zāi)動(dòng)態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)概念框架131
6.5.2草原火災(zāi)動(dòng)態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系131
6.5.3草原火災(zāi)動(dòng)態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型133
6.6草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果的驗(yàn)證138
6.6.1靜態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果的驗(yàn)證138
6.6.2動(dòng)態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果的驗(yàn)證139
6.6.3敏感性分析141
6.6.4風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果的不確定性分析146
第7章草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)在火災(zāi)管理中的應(yīng)用研究147
7.1草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)應(yīng)用研究147
7.1.1草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過程147
7.1.2靜態(tài)草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的應(yīng)用148
7.1.3動(dòng)態(tài)草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的應(yīng)用150
7.2草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)與動(dòng)態(tài)模擬耦合研究150
7.2.1靜態(tài)與動(dòng)態(tài)草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的耦合研究150
7.2.2草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)與草原火災(zāi)蔓延耦合研究151
第8章結(jié)論與展望153
8.1取得結(jié)論153
8.2展望和未來要開展的工作154
8.2.1下一步的研究重點(diǎn)154
8.2.2草原火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)應(yīng)用研究155
8.2.3草原火災(zāi)生態(tài)影響評(píng)價(jià)155
參考文獻(xiàn)156
彩圖
ContentsPreliminaryForewordChapter1Introduction1
1.1Backgroundandsignificance4
1.1.1Background4
1.1.2Purposeandsignificance7
1.2Frontierandprogress10
1.2.1Progressandreviewofgrasslandfirebehavior11
1.2.2Progressandreviewofgrasslandfiredanger14
1.2.3Progressandreviewofgrasslandfirelossesassessment19
1.2.4Progressandreviewofgrasslandfireriskassessment20
1.2.5Progressandreviewofgrasslandfiresimulation24
1.3Systemtheoryanalysisofgrasslandfireriskassessment27
1.3.1Conceptanalysisofgrasslandfire28
1.3.2Theoreticalbasisofgrasslandfireriskassessment29
1.3.3Complexityanalysisofgrasslandfirerisksystem30
1.4Contentsandframework32
1.4.1Contents32
1.4.2Keyproblems35
1.4.3Techniqueflow36
Chapter2TemporalandspatialevolutionofthesurfacefuelinthenortherngrasslandofCinah39
2.1GeneralsituationofgrasslandinnorthernCinah40
2.1.1Locationandadministrativedivision40
2.1.2Naturalgeographicalenvironment42
2.1.3Socialandeconomicenvironment43
2.2Analysisoftemporalandspatialevolutionofthesurfacefuelbasedonvegetationindex44
2.2.1Severalvegetationindex44
2.2.2Calculationofgrasslandbiomassbasedonvegetationindex46
2.2.3Calculationofthesurfacefuelquantityofgrasslandbasedonvegetationindex49
Chapter3TemporalandspatialfeaturesofgrasslandfiresinnorthernCinah54
3.1Overviewofgrasslandfirehistoryinthestudyarea54
3.1.1Overviewofgrasslandfireinthestudyarea54
3.1.2Overviewoffiredisasterreductionabilityinthestudyarea55
3.2TemporalandspatialsituationofgrasslandfiresinnorthernCinah56
3.2.1Investigationandanalysisofthecauseofthefire58
3.2.2Distributionfeaturesofgrasslandfire61
3.3TimeseriesforecastingofseveregrasslandfireinnorthernCinah64
3.3.1Timeseriesforecastingofgrasslandfirebasedonnonlineartheory64
3.3.2Greysystemforecastmethod65
3.3.3Markovforecastmethod67
3.3.4GreyMarkovFrecastinogmethod68
3.4FuzzyanalysisoffiredisasterdamagesinnorthernCinah69
3.4.1Analysisofgrasslandfireoccurrenceprobabilitybasedoninformationdiffusiontheory70
3.4.2Fuzzyrelationshipanalysisofthenumberandlossofgrasslandfirebasedoninformationmatrix73
Chapter4CharacteristicanalysisofgrasslandfirebehaviorinnorthernCinah78
4.1Analysisoftheinfluenceofweatherconditionsongrasslandfire78
4.1.1Effectofhumidityconditionongrasslandfire79
4.1.2Effectoftemperatureongrasslandfire81
4.1.3Effectofwindongrasslandfire84
4.1.4Effectofdroughtongrasslandfire85
4.2Analysisoftheeffectoffuelcharacteristicsongrasslandfire87
4.2.1Analysisontheinfluenceofmoisturecontentoffuelonfire87
4.2.2Relationshipbetweenfuelcharacteristicsandfirebehaviorparameters89
4.2.3Fireintensityofsurfacefuel914.3Analysisoffirebehaviorunderdifferentfireconditions92
4.3.1Analysisoftheinfluenceofweatherconditionsonthepropagationspeedofgrasslandfire93
4.3.2Analysisoftheeffectoftopographyonthepropagationvelocityofgrasslandfire93
4.3.3Analysisofgrasslandfirespreadrateundertheinfluenceofsyntheticfactors93
Chapter5Grasslandfirespreadingsimulationbasedonfirebehavioranalysis99
5.1SimulationofgrasslandfirespreadbasedontheCllulareautomaton99
5.1.1Thedefinitionofgrid101
5.1.2Thestateofgrid101
5.1.3Evolutionrule101
5.1.4Theinfluenceofwinddirectionandspeed103
5.1.5Grasslandfirespreadprobability104
5.1.6Determinationofspreadingtime104
5.1.7Theprocessofgrasslandfirespreadingsimulation105
5.2Casestudy106
5.2.1Geographicalbackgroundofthestudyarea106
5.2.2Grasslandfirescenarioreproduce108
5.2.3Thesimulationvisualizationofgrasslandfirespreadingscene108
5.3Theresultverificationofgrasslandfiredynamicspreading109
Chapter6Studyonfireriskassessmentofgrasslandbasedongrasslandtypes112
6.1Basictheoryofgrasslandfirerisk112
6.1.1Theformationmechanismofgrasslandfirerisk112
6.1.2Theassessmentframeworkgrasslandfirerisk115
6.2Thestudyareaanddatasources115
6.2.1Overviewofstudyarea115
6.2.2Datasourcesandprocessing116
6.3Theindexsystemofgrasslandfireriskassessment117
6.3.1Grasslandfirehazardanalysis117
6.3.2Grasslandfireexposureanalysis122
6.3.3Grasslandfirevulnerabilityanalysis122
6.3.4Grasslandfireriskassessmentindexsystem122
6.3.5Theindexsystemofgrasslandfireriskassessment122
6.3.6Grasslandfireriskindexweightdetermination123
6.4ThecomprehensiveassessmentofgrasslandfireriskinthenorthofChina124
6.4.1AssessmentofhazardofgrasslandfireinthenorthofCinah125
6.4.2AssessmentofexposureofgrasslandfireinthenorthofCinah125
6.4.3AssessmentofvulnerabilityofgrasslandfireinthenorthofCinah127
6.4.4AssessmentofmanagementablilityofgrasslandfireinthenorthofCinah127
6.4.5TheresultsofcomprehensiveassessmentofgrasslandfireriskinthenorthofCinah128
6.5Dynamicriskassessmentofgrasslandfirebasedonfirebehaviorsimulation131
6.5.1Theconceptualframeworkfordynamicriskassessmentofgrasslandfire131
6.5.2Grasslandfireriskassessmentindexsystem131
6.5.3Grasslandfireriskassessmentmodel133
6.6Theverificationofgrasslandfireriskassessmentresults138
6.6.1Theverificationofstaticriskassessmentresults138
6.6.2Theverificationofdynamicriskassessmentresults139
6.6.3Sensitivityanalysis141
6.6.4Uncertaintyanalysisofriskassessmentresults146
Chapter7Applicationofgrasslandfireriskassessmentinfiremanagement147
7.1Applicationstudyofgrasslandfireriskassessment147
7.1.1Grasslandfireriskmanagementprocess147
7.1.2Applicationofstaticgrasslandfireriskassessment148
7.1.3Applicationofdynamicgrasslandfireriskassessment150
7.2Thestudyonthecouplingofdynamicsimulationandriskassessmentofgrasslandfire150
7.2.1Thestudyonthecouplingofstaticanddynamicgrasslandfireriskassessment150
7.2.2Thestudyonthefireriskassessmentofgrasslandandgrasslandfirespread151
Chapter8Conclusionandprospect1538.1Results153
8.2Theprospectandfuturework154
8.2.1Thenextresearchfocus154
8.2.2Applicationstudyofgrasslandfireriskassessment155
8.2.3Theassessmentofgrasslandfireecology155
References156
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