在《國(guó)際金融》中,三位作者結(jié)合中國(guó)與其他發(fā)展中國(guó)家的實(shí)際經(jīng)驗(yàn),系統(tǒng)介紹了國(guó)際金融領(lǐng)域的經(jīng)典理論、模型、案例,并討論它們?cè)谥袊?guó)的具體應(yīng)用。內(nèi)容安排方面,本書(shū)首先介紹了國(guó)際金融最重要的變量——匯率;然后介紹一個(gè)國(guó)家的國(guó)際收支平衡表,金融的全球化成本收益分析,開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)中一個(gè)國(guó)家的財(cái)政、貨幣政策組合;最后介紹一個(gè)國(guó)家的匯率制度選擇,以及各個(gè)國(guó)家面對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊時(shí)協(xié)調(diào)貨幣政策的可能性。在介紹完經(jīng)典模型后,本書(shū)專(zhuān)門(mén)討論如何將經(jīng)典模型用于分析中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題,特別是中國(guó)逐步開(kāi)放的動(dòng)態(tài)過(guò)程。同時(shí),本書(shū)涵蓋大量數(shù)據(jù)分析案例,引導(dǎo)讀者從數(shù)據(jù)中運(yùn)用統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)、計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)工具提煉國(guó)際金融典型事實(shí),理解國(guó)際金融理論。
本書(shū)可作為普通高等院校國(guó)際金融課程教材、黨校及干部培訓(xùn)教材,也可作為希望了解國(guó)際金融學(xué)知識(shí)讀者的參考書(shū)。
王瀟
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王瀟,中國(guó)科學(xué)技術(shù)大學(xué)管理學(xué)院教授、國(guó)際金融研究院院長(zhǎng)助理,北京大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)碩士,威斯康星大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士,曾任美國(guó)北達(dá)科他大學(xué)副教授。主要研究方向?yàn)閲?guó)際金融和國(guó)際貿(mào)易。
史蛟
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史蛟,北京大學(xué)匯豐商學(xué)院助教授,威斯康辛大學(xué)麥迪遜分校經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士。主要研究方向?yàn)閲?guó)際宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、外商直接投資、宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)。
王健
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王健,香港中文大學(xué)(深圳)經(jīng)管學(xué)院教授,清華五道口金融學(xué)院金融碩士導(dǎo)師,中國(guó)金融四十人青年論壇會(huì)員,美國(guó)威斯康星大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士。主要研究方向?yàn)閲?guó)際金融市場(chǎng)和貨幣政策。
Chapter 1 Introduction and Background / / 1
1. 1 Features of the Book / / 3
1. 1. 1 Subject Matters and Tools of International Finance / / 4
1. 1. 2 Research Method and Logic of the Book / / 7
1. 1. 3 Applicability of the Book / / 8
1. 2 Overview of Contents / / 10
1. 2. 1 Exchange Rate / / 10
1. 2. 2 Balance of Payments and Financial Globalization / / 11
1. 2. 3 International Financial Market, Institutions and Institutional Reform / / 11
1. 3 Background: Globalization and China Opening-up / / 12
1. 3. 1 Recent History of Globalization / / 12
1. 3. 2 China??s Opening-up / / 16
Chapter 2 Basic Theories of Exchange Rate / / 21
2. 1 Exchange Rate and Foreign Exchange Market / / 24
2. 1. 1 Definition of Exchange Rate / / 24
2. 1. 2 Exchange Rate Regime and Exchange Rate Determination Mechanism / / 27
2. 1. 3 Foreign Exchange Market and Foreign Exchange Derivatives / / 33
2. 2 Exchange Rate Arbitrage and Interest Rate Parity Formula / / 44
2. 2. 1 Exchange Rate Arbitrage / / 44
2. 2. 2 Covered Interest Rate Parity Formula / / 45
2. 2. 3 Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Formula / / 47
2. 2. 4 Risk and Liquidity / / 50
Chapter 3 Long-term and Short-term Pricing of Exchange Rate / / 59
3. 1 Long-term Pricing of Exchange Rate / / 61
3. 1. 1 Law of One Price and Purchasing Power Parity / / 61
3. 1. 2 Absolute Purchasing Power Parity and Relative Purchasing Power Parity / / 63
3. 1. 3 Long-term Pricing of Exchange Rate: The Balassa-Samuelson Model / / 71
3. 1. 4 Long-term Pricing of Exchange Rate: Monetary Price / / 75
3. 2 Short-term Pricing of Exchange Rate / / 77
3. 2. 1 Short-term Pricing of Exchange Rate: Asset Approach / / 78
3. 2. 2 Long-term and Short-term Pricing Models of Exchange Rate: Money and Monetary Path / / 80
3. 2. 3 Fixed Interest Rate and the Trilemma / / 83
3. 2. 4 Exchange Rate Prediction / / 86
3. 3 Foreign Exchange Control / / 89
3. 3. 1 Foreign Exchange Control and Foreign Exchange Reserve Management / / 89
3. 3. 2 History and Reform of the Renminbi Exchange Rate / / 92
Chapter 4 Balance of Payments and Financial Globalization / / 97
4. 1 International Transactions and Balance of Payments / / 99
4. 1. 1 Macroeconomic Transactions and Macro Accounts / / 99
4. 1. 2 The Balance of Payments Accounts / / 103
4. 1. 3 External Wealth of a Nation / / 112
4. 2 Cost-benefit Analysis of Financial Globalization / / 121
4. 2. 1 Small Open Economy Model / / 121
4. 2. 2 Consumption Smoothing / / 123
4. 2. 3 Improvement of Investment Efficiency / / 127
4. 2. 4 Risk Diversification / / 129
4. 3 Efficiency of International Financial Market / / 130
Chapter 5 Open Economy Macroeconomic Model and Policy Analysis / / 137
5. 1 Keynesian Model in Open Economy / / 139
5. 1. 1 Aggregate Demand / / 139
5. 1. 2 Goods Market and Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium / / 143
5. 1. 3 Money Market Equilibrium / / 144
5. 1. 4 Home Country Equilibrium / / 145
5. 2 Policy Analysis with the Keynesian Model / / 146
5. 2. 1 Temporary Monetary and Fiscal Policies / / 146
5. 2. 2 Permanent Monetary and Fiscal Policies / / 158
5. 2. 3 Macroscopic Policy and Current Account / / 161
5. 2. 4 Liquidity Trap / / 165
Chapter 6 Exchange Rate Regimes / / 171
6. 1 Exchange Rate Regime Classification / / 173
6. 2 Theory of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes / / 179
6. 2. 1 The Central Bank Balance Sheet and Money Supply / / 180
6. 2. 2 Economic Policy under a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime / / 186
6. 3 Considerations for Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime / / 197
6. 3. 1 Similarity of Shocks between the Pegging Country and the Anchor Country / / 197
6. 3. 2 Economic Integration / / 199
6. 3. 3 Effects of Exchange Rate Regime on Trade / / 199
6. 3. 4 Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Discipline / / 203
6. 3. 5 Exchange Rate Regime and Wealth Shocks / / 204
6. 3. 6 Discussion: The Feasibility of Fixed Exchange Rate Regime / / 206
Chapter 7 Capital Control and Capital Flow Management / / 211
7. 1 International Capital Flow and Classification / / 214
7. 2 International Capital Control Policy / / 217
7. 2. 1 Capital Control / / 217
7. 2. 2 Capital Control and Macroprudential Management / / 221
7. 3 The Macroeconomy and Policy Effects under Capital Control / / 223
7. 3. 1 Basic Model Assumptions / / 224
7. 3. 2 Monetary Policy / / 225
7. 3. 3 Fiscal Policy / / 228
7. 3. 4 Exchange Rate Policy: Change of the Target Exchange Rate / / 230
7. 3. 5 Discussion: Pros and Cons of Capital Controls / / 232
7. 4 Foreign Direct Investment / / 233
7.4.1 FDI`s Influence on Productivity and Economic Development / / 233
7. 4. 2 Determinants of FDI Flow / / 236
Chapter 8 Developing Countries / / 241
8. 1 Growth and Divergence in the World Economy / / 243
8. 1. 1 Income Disparity and Happiness / / 243
8. 1. 2 Prediction of the Classical Growth Theory and Partial Convergence / / 245
8. 2 Capital Flows to Developing Countries, Risks, and Crises / / 249
8. 2. 1 Financial Flows to Developing Countries / / 249
8. 2. 2 Defaults and Capital Flow Reversals / / 255
8. 2. 3 Currency Mismatch and the “Original Sin” / / 257
8. 3 Emerging Market Balance-of-Payment Crises / / 259
8. 3. 1 Latin American Debt Crisis in the 1980s / / 259
8. 3. 2 Asian Financial Crisis, 1997 -1998 / / 261
8. 4 Reforming the International Safety Nets / / 269
8. 4. 1 The Revival of Capital Controls / / 269
8. 4. 2 Foreign Exchange Reserves / / 271
8. 4. 3 Regional Safety Nets and Central Bank Swaps / / 272
8. 4. 4 The Role of the IMF / / 273