《國(guó)家智庫報(bào)告 “一帶一路”面臨的國(guó)際風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與合作空間拓展:以斯里蘭卡為例》以“一帶一路面臨的國(guó)際風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與合作空間拓展”作為主題,目的是實(shí)現(xiàn)以下三個(gè)方面的目標(biāo):一是了解和把握重點(diǎn)國(guó)家對(duì)一帶一路的態(tài)度及合作需求;二是了解國(guó)內(nèi)重點(diǎn)省區(qū)與一帶一路沿線國(guó)家的合作情況;三是對(duì)未來拓展合作空間的具體辦法進(jìn)行收集整理。
1. Introduction
2. Sri Lanka and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road
2.1 The Unique Geograpical Location of Sri Lanka in the Silk Road
2.2 Strategic Considerations of Sri Lanka's Participation in the 21 st-Century Maritime Silk Road
2.3 The Attitudes of the New Sri Lankan Government towards the 21 st-Century Maritime Silk Road
3. Dynamics of the Sri Lankan Economy and Potential Macroeconomic
Risks
3.1 Basic Features of the Sri Lankan Economy
3.2 The Structural Problems of Sri Lanka's Economy
3.2.1 Sri Lanka's Fiscal Deficit Risks
3.2.2 External Debt Risks
3.2.3 Internal and External Imbalances and Risks of Policy Failure
3.3 Economic Policy Challenges for the New Government of Sri Lanka
4. Sri Lanka's Diplomatic Balancing Strategy
4.1 Sri Lanka's Relationship with India
4.2 Sri Lanka's Relationship with Japan
4.3 The New Government's Policy Shift and Implications for China
5. The Negotiation of Sino- Sri Lanka FTA
5.1 The Role of Sino- Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement
5.2 The Negotiation Progress of the Sino-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement
6. Behind the Interruption of the Colombo Port City Project
6.1 The Colombo Port City as a Flagship Project of the 21 st-Century Maritime Silk Road
6.2 Reasons of China's Port City Interruption
6.3 Prospect of the Colombo Port City Project
7. Conclusions
Referenees
《國(guó)家智庫報(bào)告 “一帶一路”面臨的國(guó)際風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與合作空間拓展:以斯里蘭卡為例》:
Since China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative, Sri Lanka has played an important role in China's peripheral diplomacy, especially in the "21st-Century Maritime Silk Road", due to its unique geographical location. Located in the transit point of east-west channel in the Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka is an important hub of the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road. Historically, Sri Lanka was the channel that cannot bypass for the Middle East and South Asia. Even in the modern time, the crude oil exported from Persian Gulf, if the target buyer is in Asia, it must be transported along the Indian peninsula and the Malacca Strait, and the ports of Sri Lanka is the only shipment choice.
From the geopolitical point of view, the Indian Ocean, as an important route of the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, is a centre of the sea routes of the global trade, energy, raw materials; the entire Indian Ocean shipping accounted for 1/2 of the global container transport, 1/3 of bulk cargo, 2/3 of crude oil ship. At the same time, China's dependence on the Indian Ocean is also rising; in 2013, China surpassed the United States to become the world's largest trading nation, of which 40% of foreign trade needs shipment through the Indian Ocean, while the proportion is rising continuously. Nearly 60% of China's crude oil imports (mainly from Africa and West Asia) need to pass through the channels of the West Indian Ocean in 2013, which is a major strategic bottleneck for China's international trade.
Since ancient times, Ceylon has been playing the role of outpost of the Indian Ocean. It is the hub of the sea transportation between the Far East and Southeast Asia, West Asia, Europe and North Africa. Sri Lanka is located on the hub of the Indian Ocean, near the international maritime route; the Colombo Port is not only an important port for goods coming in and out, but also a key node for linking the West and the East. Sri Lanka's unique geographical location, through building the 21st- Century Maritime Silk Road will upgrade the Sino-Sri Lanka friendship, and make China to take an active part in the Indian Ocean region's international trade and investment system. China and Sri Lanka's co-building of 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, promotes common prosperity through economical cooperation, and ultimately promotes the bilateral economic community to the community with common destiny.
At the same time, China's maritime transport channel security will also be greatly protected. China proposed B&R Initiative because China's economic spillover effect requires China and the international community to have a long-term effective cooperation platform and strategic program. Regional backwardness of transport network and connectivity has become a bottleneck for China's trade and investment. China's total foreign trade in 2014 has reached US $ 4.30 trillion, a large part of which is based on maritime transport, and the transit trade through land borders is limited. The overwhelming dependence on maritime transport highlights China's demand in the maritime sector. The number of fleets that China owns ranked the ninth in the world, the total tonnage owned by overseas parent company ranked the fourth, it has more than 5,000 ocean merchant ships, and container production accounted for more than 90% of the world.
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