目錄
前言
第1章 緒論 1
1.1 研究目的和意義 1
1.2 國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究進(jìn)展和展望 5
1.2.1 草原旱災(zāi)損失快速評(píng)估研究進(jìn)展 5
1.2.2 草原雪災(zāi)損失快速評(píng)估研究進(jìn)展 13
1.2.3 災(zāi)害鏈研究進(jìn)展 18
1.2.4 草原旱災(zāi)、雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急減災(zāi)與應(yīng)急救助研究進(jìn)展 25
1.2.5 國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究存在的問題 28
1.2.6 國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究展望 29
1.3 研究目標(biāo)與研究?jī)?nèi)容 30
1.3.1 研究目標(biāo) 30
1.3.2 研究?jī)?nèi)容 30
1.4 研究方法與研究技術(shù)路線 32
1.5 研究創(chuàng)新點(diǎn) 46
參考文獻(xiàn) 47
第2章 草原旱災(zāi)損失快速評(píng)估研究 61
2.1 研究區(qū)域與數(shù)據(jù)來源 61
2.1.1 研究區(qū)域 61
2.1.2 數(shù)據(jù)來源 62
2.2 理論依據(jù)與研究方法 63
2.2.1 理論依據(jù) 63
2.2.2 研究方法 64
2.3 草原干旱災(zāi)害系統(tǒng)分析 69
2.3.1 孕災(zāi)環(huán)境 69
2.3.2 致災(zāi)因子 70
2.3.3 承災(zāi)體 74
2.4 草原干旱時(shí)空分布格局分析 75
2.4.1 松嫩草原干旱識(shí)別 75
2.4.2 松嫩草原干旱時(shí)空分布規(guī)律 76
2.5 草原NPP估算及其時(shí)空格局 80
2.5.1 CASA模型參數(shù)的求取與確定 80
2.5.2 松嫩草原NPP估算實(shí)現(xiàn)及精度驗(yàn)證 82
2.5.3 松嫩草原NPP時(shí)空分布特征 84
2.6 干旱災(zāi)害損失率曲線構(gòu)建 87
2.6.1 基于CASA模型的干旱損失率曲線構(gòu)建 87
2.6.2 基于野外實(shí)驗(yàn)的干旱損失率曲線構(gòu)建 90
2.6.3 兩種損失率曲線的對(duì)比分析 92
2.7 干旱災(zāi)害損失快速評(píng)估研究 93
2.7.1 松嫩草原干旱災(zāi)害對(duì)草地產(chǎn)量影響的損失快速評(píng)估 94
2.7.2 松嫩草原干旱災(zāi)害對(duì)草地載畜量影響的損失快速評(píng)估 98
參考文獻(xiàn) 102
第3章 草原雪災(zāi)損失快速評(píng)估研究 104
3.1 研究區(qū)概況與數(shù)據(jù)來源 104
3.1.1 研究區(qū)概況 104
3.1.2 數(shù)據(jù)來源 105
3.2 理論依據(jù)與研究方法 106
3.2.1 理論依據(jù) 106
3.2.2 研究方法 108
3.3 草原雪災(zāi)致災(zāi)系統(tǒng)分析 109
3.3.1 孕災(zāi)環(huán)境子系統(tǒng)分析 109
3.3.2 致災(zāi)因子子系統(tǒng)分析 110
3.3.3 承災(zāi)體子系統(tǒng)分析 113
3.4 草原牧區(qū)積雪面積時(shí)空演變格局 117
3.4.1 積雪面積時(shí)間變化 120
3.4.2 積雪面積空間變化 120
3.5 基于FY-3B微波遙感數(shù)據(jù)的積雪深度反演研究 122
3.5.1 反演模型建立 122
3.5.2 模型反演精度驗(yàn)證 125
3.6 草原雪災(zāi)多承災(zāi)體損失率曲線建立 127
3.6.1 錫林郭勒地區(qū)草原主要承災(zāi)體雪災(zāi)損失率的計(jì)算 127
3.6.2 錫林郭勒地區(qū)不同承災(zāi)體草原雪災(zāi)損失率曲線的建立 128
3.7 草原牧區(qū)不同承災(zāi)體草原雪災(zāi)損失快速評(píng)估 129
3.7.1 錫林郭勒地區(qū)草原雪災(zāi)草場(chǎng)損失快速評(píng)估 130
3.7.2 錫林郭勒地區(qū)草原雪災(zāi)牲畜損失快速評(píng)估 130
3.7.3 錫林郭勒地區(qū)草原雪災(zāi)牲畜棚舍損失快速評(píng)估 131
3.7.4 錫林郭勒地區(qū)草原雪災(zāi)人口損失快速評(píng)估 131
3.7.5 錫林郭勒地區(qū)草原雪災(zāi)直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失快速評(píng)估 132
參考文獻(xiàn) 134
第4章 草原旱災(zāi)、雪災(zāi)社會(huì)影響評(píng)價(jià)研究 135
4.1 草原旱災(zāi)危險(xiǎn)性時(shí)空演變特征分析 135
4.1.1 研究區(qū)域與研究方法 135
4.1.2 草原旱災(zāi)危險(xiǎn)性時(shí)空演變特征 139
4.1.3 結(jié)論與討論 145
4.2 草原雪災(zāi)時(shí)空演變分析 146
4.2.1 理論依據(jù)與研究方法 146
4.2.2 草原雪災(zāi)時(shí)空演變特征分析 149
4.2.3 內(nèi)蒙古錫林郭勒盟草原雪災(zāi)災(zāi)情評(píng)價(jià)與區(qū)劃 154
4.3 草原干旱-雪災(zāi)災(zāi)害鏈推理模型研究 163
4.3.1 研究方法與災(zāi)害鏈類型 163
4.3.2 草原干旱-雪災(zāi)災(zāi)害鏈推理模型的構(gòu)建 166
4.3.3 草原干旱-雪災(zāi)災(zāi)害鏈推理模型的檢驗(yàn) 168
4.3.4 錫林郭勒盟草原旱災(zāi)、雪災(zāi)綜合區(qū)劃 169
4.4 草原旱災(zāi)社會(huì)影響評(píng)價(jià)研究 171
4.4.1 草原旱災(zāi)社會(huì)影響機(jī)理分析 171
4.4.2 草原旱災(zāi)社會(huì)影響評(píng)價(jià)方法 172
4.4.3 基于SD模型的草原旱災(zāi)社會(huì)影響驅(qū)動(dòng)機(jī)理分析 174
4.4.4 草原旱災(zāi)社會(huì)影響評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系選取及模型構(gòu)建 175
4.4.5 草原旱災(zāi)社會(huì)影響評(píng)價(jià)與區(qū)劃 178
4.5 草原雪災(zāi)社會(huì)影響評(píng)價(jià)研究 179
4.5.1 草原雪災(zāi)社會(huì)影響機(jī)理分析 179
4.5.2 草原雪災(zāi)社會(huì)影響評(píng)價(jià)方法 180
4.5.3 草原雪災(zāi)社會(huì)影響評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系與模型構(gòu)建 181
4.5.4 草原雪災(zāi)社會(huì)影響評(píng)價(jià)與區(qū)劃 183
參考文獻(xiàn) 186
第5章 草原雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急救助需求與能力評(píng)估研究 188
5.1 自然災(zāi)害應(yīng)急救助理論 188
5.1.1 自然災(zāi)害應(yīng)急救助基本概念 188
5.1.2 自然災(zāi)害應(yīng)急救助特征 189
5.1.3 自然災(zāi)害應(yīng)急救助評(píng)估內(nèi)涵與內(nèi)容 190
5.1.4 自然災(zāi)害應(yīng)急救助的意義 191
5.1.5 自然災(zāi)害應(yīng)急救助體系 192
5.1.6 自然災(zāi)害應(yīng)急救助評(píng)估 193
5.2 草原雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急救助能力研究 198
5.2.1 草原雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急救助能力評(píng)價(jià)方法 198
5.2.2 草原雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急救助能力評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系與模型構(gòu)建 199
5.2.3 草原雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急救助能力評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果分析 203
5.3 草原雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急救助需求研究 209
5.3.1 草原雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急救助需求研究方法 210
5.3.2 草原雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急救助需求模型的構(gòu)建 212
5.3.3 草原雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急救助需求結(jié)果分析 216
參考文獻(xiàn) 219
第6章 草原雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急救助物資庫(kù)及避難所優(yōu)化布局研究 221
6.1 草原雪災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)與區(qū)劃研究 221
6.1.1 研究區(qū)域與數(shù)據(jù)來源 221
6.1.2 理論依據(jù)與研究方法 223
6.1.3 草原雪災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素辨識(shí) 225
6.1.4 草原雪災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系與模型的建立 227
6.1.5 基于行政尺度與格網(wǎng)尺度的草原雪災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià) 229
6.2 草原雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急物資庫(kù)優(yōu)化布局研究 238
6.2.1 草原雪災(zāi)物資庫(kù)布局影響因子分析 238
6.2.2 草原雪災(zāi)物資庫(kù)優(yōu)化布局與服務(wù)區(qū)劃分 242
6.3 社區(qū)應(yīng)急避難所優(yōu)化布局技術(shù)研究 246
6.3.1 社區(qū)應(yīng)急避難場(chǎng)所區(qū)位選址模型構(gòu)建 247
6.3.2 實(shí)證案例 249
6.4 區(qū)級(jí)應(yīng)急避難所優(yōu)化布局研究 251
6.4.1 應(yīng)急避難所選址影響因素分析 251
6.4.2 應(yīng)急避難所優(yōu)化布局原則 252
6.4.3 避難所選址適宜性分析 253
6.4.4 避難所優(yōu)化布局模型構(gòu)建及應(yīng)用 255
參考文獻(xiàn) 257
第7章 草原旱災(zāi)、雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急救助管理系統(tǒng)構(gòu)建與決策研究 259
7.1 北方牧區(qū)草原旱災(zāi)、雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急救助技術(shù)整體框架與技術(shù)平臺(tái)構(gòu)建 259
7.1.1 基于“3S”技術(shù)的草原牧區(qū)旱災(zāi)損失快速評(píng)估系統(tǒng)概念框架的構(gòu)建 259
7.1.2 北方牧區(qū)草原旱災(zāi)、雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急救助可視化系統(tǒng) 262
7.1.3 北方牧區(qū)草原干旱識(shí)別與損失評(píng)估可視化系統(tǒng) 265
7.1.4 北方牧區(qū)草原雪災(zāi)損失快速評(píng)估可視化系統(tǒng) 270
7.1.5 北方牧區(qū)草原雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急物資庫(kù)優(yōu)化布局系統(tǒng) 275
7.1.6 北方牧區(qū)草原雪災(zāi)應(yīng)急避難所優(yōu)化布局系統(tǒng) 280
7.2 北方牧區(qū)草原旱災(zāi)、雪災(zāi)管理及防御對(duì)策研究 286
7.2.1 草原干旱災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理技術(shù)對(duì)策 286
7.2.2 草原雪災(zāi)損失防御對(duì)策研究 293
參考文獻(xiàn) 296
彩圖
Contents
Foreword
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Purpose and significance of the study 1
1.2 Research progress and prospect at home and abroad 5
1.2.1 Research progress on rapid evaluation of grassland drought disaster loss 5
1.2.2 Research progress on rapid evaluation of grassland snow disaster loss 13
1.2.3 Research progress of disaster chain 18
1.2.4 Research progress on the mitigation and relief of grassland drought and snow disaster 25
1.2.5 The problems of the related researches at home and abroad 28
1.2.6 The prospect of the related researches 29
1.3 Study objectives and contents 30
1.3.1 Study objectives 30
1.3.2 Study contents 30
1.4 Study methods and technical route 32
1.5 The innovation of the study 46 References 47
Chapter 2 Research on rapid evaluation of grassland drought disaster loss 61
2.1 Study area and data sources 61
2.1.1 Study area 61
2.1.2 Data sources 62
2.2 Theoretical basis and research methods 63
2.2.1 Theoretical basis 63
2.2.2 Research methods 64
2.3 Analysis of the system of grassland drought disaster 69
2.3.1 Hazard-formative environment 69
2.3.2 Hazard factors 70？？
2.3.3 Hazard-bearing body 74
2.4 Temporary and spatial patterns of grassland drought 75
2.4.1 Identification of grassland drought in the Songnen grassland 75
2.4.2 Temporary and spatial variations of grassland drought in the Songnen grassland 76
2.5 Estimation of grassland Net Primary Product (NPP) and its temporal and spatial variations 80
2.5.1 Calculation and determination of the parameters in the CASA model 80
2.5.2 Achievement and verification of NPP estimation in the Songnen grassland 82
2.5.3 Temporary and spatial variations of NPP in the Songnen grassland 84
2.6 Construction of the loss rate curves of drought disaster 87
2.6.1 Construction of the loss rate curves of drought disaster based on CASA model 87
2.6.2 Construction of the loss rate curves of drought disaster based on field experiment 90
2.6.3 Comparative analysis of the two loss rate curves 92
2.7 Research on rapid evaluation of drought disaster loss 93
2.7.1 Research on rapid evaluation of grassland drought disaster loss of grassland yield 94
2.7.2 Research on rapid evaluation of grassland drought disaster loss of carrying capacity 98
References 102
Chapter 3 Study on rapid evaluation of grassland snow disaster loss 104
3.1 Study area and data sources 104
3.1.1 Study area 104
3.1.2 Data sources 105
3.2 Theoretical basis and research methods 106
3.2.1 Theoretical basis 106
3.2.2 Research methods 108
3.3 Analysis of grassland snow disaster system 109
3.3.1 Analysis of hazard-formative environment subsystem 109？？
3.3.2 Analysis of hazard-factor subsystem 110
3.3.3 Analysis of hazard-affected bodies′subsystem 113
3.4 Temporal and spatial situation change of grassland snow cover 117
3.4.1 Temporal situation change of snow cover 120
3.4.2 Spatial situation change of snow cover 120
3.5 Snow depth retrieval based on FY-3B microwave remote sensing data 122
3.5.1 Snow depth retrieval model 122
3.5.2 Model retrieval accuracy test 125
3.6 Loss curves of multiple hazard-affected bodies of grassland snow disaster 127
3.6.1 Loss rate calculation of main hazard-affected bodies of grassland snow disaster in Xilingol League 127
3.6.2 Loss curves of different hazard-affected bodies of grassland snow disaster in Xilingol League 128
3.7 rapid evaluation of different hazard-affected bodies loss of grassland snow disaster 129
3.7.1 Rapid evaluation of grassland loss of grassland snow disaster in Xilingol League 130
3.7.2 Rapid evaluation of livestock loss of grassland snow disaster in Xilingol League 130
3.7.3 Rapid evaluation of canopies loss of grassland snow disaster in Xilingol League 131
3.7.4 Rapid evaluation of population loss of grassland snow disaster in Xilingol League 131
3.7.5 Rapid evaluation of direct economic loss of grassland snow disaster in Xilingol League 132
References 134
Chapter 4 Study on social impact assessment of grassland drought and snow disaster 135
4.1 Spatial and temporal evolution of drought hazards in grassland 135
4.1.1 Study area and research methods 135
4.1.2 Spatial and temporal evolution of drought hazards in grassland 139
4.1.3 Conclusion and discussion 145？？
4.2 Spatial and temporal evolution of snow disaster in grassland 146
4.2.1 Theoretical basis and research methods 146
4.2.2 Spatial and temporal evolution of grassland snow disaster 149
4.2.3 Grassland snow disaster assessment and zoning of Xilingol League 154
4.3 Research on reasoning model of grassland drought-snow disaster 163
4.3.1 Research methods and disaster chain types 163
4.3.2 Construction of grassland drought-snow disaster reasoning model 166
4.3.3 Test of grassland drought-snow disaster reasoning model 168
4.3.4 Grassland drought-snow disaster comprehensive zoning of Xilinguol League 169
4.4 Study on social impact assessment of grassland drought disaster 171
4.4.1 Mechanism analysis of the social impact of grassland drought disaster 171
4.4.2 The assessment methods of the social impact of grassland drought disaster 172
4.4.3 The driving mechanism analysis of the social impact of grassland drought disaster based on System Dynamic model 174
4.4.4 Construction of indices system and assessment model of the social impact of grassland drought disaster 175
4.4.5 Grassland drought disaster social impact assessment and zoning 178
4.5 Study on social impact assessment of grassland snow disaster 179
4.5.1 Mechanism analysis of the social impact of grassland snow disaster 179
4.5.2 The assessment methods of the social impact of grassland snow disaster 180
4.5.3 Construction of indices system and assessment model of the social impact of grassland snow disaster 181
4.5.4 Grassland snow disaster social impact assessment and zoning 183
References 186
Chapter 5 Research on evaluation of emergency rescue demand and capability of grassland snow disaster 188？？
5.1 Theory of natural disaster emergency rescue 188
5.1.1 Basic conception of natural disaster emergency rescue 188
5.1.2 Features of natural disaster emergency rescue 189
5.1.3 Connotation and content of natural disaster emergency rescue 190
5.1.4 Significance of natural disaster emergency rescue 191
5.1.5 System of natural disaster emergency rescue 192
5.1.6 Evaluation of natural disaster emergency rescue 193
5.2 Research on the capability of emergency rescue of grassland snow disaster 198
5.2.1 Evaluation methods of the capability of emergency rescue of grassland snow disaster 198
5.2.2 Evaluation index system and construction the model of the capability of emergency rescue of grassland snow disaster 199
5.2.3 Results of evaluation of the capability of emergency rescue of grassland snow disaster 203
5.3 Research on the demand analysis of emergency rescue of grassland snow disaster 209
5.3.1 Methods of the demand analysis of emergency rescue of grassland snow disaster 210
5.3.2 Construction of the model of the demand analysis of emergency rescue of grassland snow disaster 212
5.3.3 Results of the demand analysis of emergency rescue of grassland snow disaster 216
References 219
Chapter 6 Study on emergency rescue material storage and haven layout optimization of grassland snow disaster 221
6.1 Study on risk assessment and regionalization of grassland snow disaster 221
6.1.1 Study area and data sources 221
6.1.2 Theoretical basis and research methods 223
6.1.3 Risk factor identification of grassland snow disaster 225
6.1.4 Construction of indices system and assessment model of the grassland snow disaster risk 227
6.1.5 Grassland snow disaster risk assessment based on administrative？？ district and grid level 229
6.2 Study on emergency rescue material storage layout optimization of grassland snow disaster 238
6.2.1 Analysis of influencing factors on the distribution of grassland snow disaster material storage 238
6.2.2 Material storage layout optimization and service area division of grassland snow disaster 242
6.3 Study on layout optimization of community emergency haven 246
6.3.1 Location model of community emergency haven 247
6.3.2 Empirical case 249
6.4 Study on optimal layout of emergency haven in district level 251
6.4.1 Analysis of influencing factors on the location of emergency haven 251
6.4.2 The principle of layout optimization of emergency haven 252
6.4.3 Suitability analysis of haven location 253
6.4.4 Construction and application of the optimal layout model of haven 255
References 257
Chapter 7 Study on construction and decision-making of grassland drought and snow rescue emergency rescue management system 259
7.1 Construction of the overall framework and technology platform of grassland drought and snow disaster emergency rescue technology in northern pastoral area 259
7.1.1 Construction of conceptual framework for rapid assessment system of drought loss in grassland pasture based on“3S”technology 259
7.1.2 Visualization system of grassland drought and snowstorm emergency rescue in northern pastoral area 262
7.1.3 Visualization system of grassland drought identification and loss assessment in northern pastoral area 265
7.1.4 Visualization system of grassland snow disaster quick evaluation loss in northern pastoral area 270
7.1.5 Optimal layout system of grassland snow disaster emergency materials in northern pastoral area 275？？
7.1.6 Optimal layout system of grassland snowstorm emergency shelter in northern pastoral area 280
7.2 Study on grassland drought？ snow disaster management and defense countermeasures in northern pastoral area 286
7.2.1 Technical measures for grassland drought disaster risk management 286
7.2.2 Study on the countermeasures of grassland snow disaster 293
References 296
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